Using fuzzy time series with and without markov chain: to forecast of edible bird nest exported from Indonesia

Using Wavelets and Splines to Forecast Non-Stationary Time Series

 This paper deals with a short term forecasting non-stationary time series using wavelets and splines. Wavelets can decompose the series as the sum of two low and high frequency components. Aminghafari and Poggi (2007) proposed to predict high frequency component by wavelets and extrapolate low frequency component by local polynomial fitting. We propose to forecast non-stationary process u...

analysis of ruin probability for insurance companies using markov chain

در این پایان نامه نشان داده ایم که چگونه می توان مدل ریسک بیمه ای اسپیرر اندرسون را به کمک زنجیره های مارکوف تعریف کرد. سپس به کمک روش های آنالیز ماتریسی احتمال برشکستگی ، میزان مازاد در هنگام برشکستگی و میزان کسری بودجه در زمان وقوع برشکستگی را محاسبه کرده ایم. هدف ما در این پایان نامه بسیار محاسباتی و کاربردی تر از روش های است که در گذشته برای محاسبه این احتمال ارائه شده است. در ابتدا ما نشا...

A Single Input Rule Modules Connected Fuzzy FMEA Methodology for Edible Bird Nest Processing

Despite of the popularity of the fuzzy Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methodology, there are several limitations in combining the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and the Risk Priority Number (RPN) model. Two main limitations are: (1) it is difficult and impractical to form a complete fuzzy rule base when the number of required rules is large; and (2) fulfillment of the monotonicity prope...

A Comparison Between Time Series, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network Methods To Forecast GDP of Iran

Development of Markov Chain Grey Regression Model to Forecast the Annual Natural Gas Consumption

Accurate forecasting of annual gas consumption of the country plays an important role in energy supply strategies and policy making in this area.  Markov chain grey regression model is considered to be a superior model for analyzing and forecasting annual gas consumption.  This model Markov is a combination of the Markov chain and grey regression models. According to this model, the residual er...